Tesla Bot – $200K/share – Napkin Math – Sunday Live

Warren opens the Sunday livestream with napkin math for Tesla Bot showing Tesla stock price going to $200,000/share or more.

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  1. Lots of good ideas from you and those that asked questions and made comments. Much to think about.

  2. The robots will start in his factories for a couple years, making his factories even more efficient.
    It makes sense to start them in here, get people used to them, see that they are safe and working. I can’t see any reason he wouldn’t do this. All his companies.

  3. Warren, Watch: Teslabot a done deal, by connecting the dots. Fascinating video on teslabot.

  4. What is even more interesting is that the Tesla Texas factory is already prepared for the Bot 🤖 work. I believe the introduction of the prototype Bot 🤖 later this year will be the time when Elon reveal that they are already working in their factory. Production of the Bot 🤖 starting 2023 and your numbers will start to make sense IMO 🤷🏼

  5. I know a guy who is paralyzed from a fall from a roof. Bot roofers is absolutely the future.

  6. The hair thing… it will take you longer to get used to it than it does us. You are now free from daily hair prep for as long as you keep it short. Liberating.

  7. What happens when a bot fails and can't perform 😂. People be like I'm not cleaning the bathroom or sweeping the floor. Lets talk about the cost to train these bots for work force. We are probably 5-10 years away from bots working outside of Tesla. We are still 3-5 years away from pure robo taxi no drives.

  8. Bots won’t fall off of roofs because they can be made to have as many legs as needed with an extremely low center of gravity. Robot hardware can be job specific; it’s the real word AI interface that matters.

  9. The world is not going in mathematic way. According mathematic in 50 years no Korean and Taiwanese on earth.

  10. Tesla stock price five years from now: $800

    Warren: I don’t care about the stock price short term!

  11. If you have hair don’t shave it off Warren. You looked better before, but still good lookin either way; great content!


  13. How about this long term. Tesla bots are ultra cheap, doing all kinds of Jobs (not only the super boring ones)

    1 billion bots generating $3K in net profit per year = $3T in net profit.

    P/E of 17 Assuming no more growth (witch is stupid) = $50T market cap or $50K a share.

    But 1 billion bots prob won't a a reality any time soon so let's say 50K a share by 2040.

    Witch means only a 25% CAGR for the next 18 years. But then again those billion bots might also generate much more profit + I am not accounting for robotaxi's or Tesla energy. Nummers might sound stupid but ultra long term i do believe $100T MC / 100K a share is possible.

    Future is gonna be great

  14. The only bad thing I found in this is the 200 million fleet I don't they can produce many of the tesla bot I think something like 500 k a year

  15. My wife owns an upscale barber shop in Bangkok but she and I love your new look🍸

  16. Roofing, window washing, water proofing, window sealant repair, high rise painting and pressure washing, traffic control, road paving, line painting, the list is endless. Can Tsla bot drive a gas powered car?

  17. We need ex-Tesla folks like Farhad Mesbahi and that (other) Logistics Black Belt guy to try their hand at computing this too.

  18. You could sell 1 million bots just to stock shelves around the world. Never mind warehouses and the like, the market for bot is literally never ending.

  19. Elon did say they would 1st start using the bots in the teslas factories doing simple tasks.

  20. There's me thinking bi was crazy telling friends Tesla will be a 50 trillion $ company I have underestimated 😂

  21. You can't extrpolate USA/Canada wages and overhead to the rest of the world. Europe may be similar but no where else.

  22. Why stop at $200k. Why not make it a round $1m or even $1b since you are letting your imagination run wild? 😂

    Yes and I know how to count: at $1b per share Tesla will be only a million trillion evaluation $10e15 only. It can be higher of course only if you are a very credible bull and not a bear. 😂😂😂😂

  23. Just imagine Tesla creates 10 to 50 thousand bots in the first year and each can make 3 bots per day. Numbers get crazy in just few years lol

  24. I like the fresh new look with shaved head. Newer glasses (or contacts) and you can probably take another 5 years of appearance off. Keep being awesome!

  25. Thank for the video! I think shorter hairstyle looks much better and you look 10 years younger! Keep up the good work!

  26. Get some thick black rimmed glasses by Tom Ford they are expensive but you look great in them

  27. Awesome head shave now all you need is colored rimmed glasses and then you’ll be all set

  28. What is easier to replace
    An employee or a manager ?
    It is always easier to replace a Manager with a robot or virtuel person.. they even dont need a body just to a zoom meeting with an AI
    Also replacing the managment wil save more money then the employees and the robot doesnt have to do much ..
    Think about it ..
    No more managment .. That will save much more as replacing the low end employees by bots !!!

  29. At this point it's just meme territory. We're so far in the realms of speculation that small deltas in outcomes will result in absolutely Gargantuan changes in revenues, profits, and the probability of anti trust legislation as Tesla becomes its own nation state with a convenient robot army (dull repetitive dangerous work). Signed, a Tesla bull.

  30. There's no competition for Teslabot yet because there's no Teslabot. It's very difficult to compete with an imaginary entity… much like unicorns or leprechauns have no competition.

  31. Working at IBM for a career, I know for a fact that IBM had a HELL of a lot of managers who managed software function that didn't know a DAMN thing about software, re technical details. For example, most such managers confused application programming and system programming (re maintaining program products vs. writing the software). For the entire time I worked there, over 26 years.

    And from the people I keep up with, I see no sign things have changed.

    I suspect that attitude / approach, re management of X having to be technical experts in X is a Tesla thing, not a general thing.

    That belief might work out very well over time, IF it is enforced strongly as Tesla grows. I wouldn't count on that happening, but I LIKE the idea/attitude.

  32. Shouldn't we be seeing solid demos of Tesla bots rapidly learning how to do jobs and doing them especially — i.e. jobs Tesla sets up and trains the AI for, before we start claiming Tesla will be worth $X trillion dollars in addition, for something that there is NO evidence will ever exist outside of Elon Musk handwaving?

    See, it takes a LOT more for things to happen than for Musk to make offhand claims. Like practical general purpose ungeofenced robo-taxis at level 4, much less level 5. Musk can claim they'll be ready every year all he wants — in reality, the progress is incremental, like EVERY serious AV competitor repeatedly states, and all the evidence, re real world progress has repeatedly shown.

    Japan has been working on things like having robots care for the elderly in nursing homes for MANY years now. In the real world, figuring these things out is HARD.

    It's still a big question how Tesla's value does vs. the current very round number of $1 trillion in market cap, given how much going right is baked into such a valuation. And I say this as a BEV fan and a long term Tesla shareholder who is just trying to be realistic.

    To me, Tesla ramping BEV production fast and improving batteries over time is very high probability. And thus Tesla energy re lots of stationary backup systems as battery production ramps for and by Tesla (especially LFP) is very high probability.

    But Tesla FSD being worth massive numbers like $100 trillion re Tesla's valuation is low probability, until proven otherwise re seriously good general AI solution being REALITY, not empty Musk claims.

    Same thing for Tesla bot, but that is a much harder problem and will take much longer.

    Valuation doesn't map to GDP, but valuation DOES map to — valuation. The ENTIRE value of ALL the global stock markets is WELL under $200 trillion. That's math, and a fact Warren. The idea that Tesla will become worth more than all the corporations in the world just because Warren, Steven Mark Ryan, and Musk are enthusiastic just doesn't make sense to me.

    And yes, over time, the economy grows. It grows roughly 3 percent a year globally, or doubling in roughly 24 years, re the rule of 72. So saying "big economic growth" doesn't magically move the decimal point multiple positions.

  33. When Tesla updates FSD beta, does that also mean the logic of Autopilot is also improved? Or are they separate code bases?

  34. What isn’t being considered is the local governments taxing these Bots. I can see that they will require a license to operated these “motorized vehicles”, safety inspection fees, human job displacement tax, etc. Politicians will figure out how to continue to be the profit vampires that they are.
    I think a specialized Bot to pick up trash along the highways would be a good product. They could call it a Bot Chain Gang and be assigned to sections of the highways.