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Why Tesla Is A $3 Trillion Company (No Robots Or Robotaxis)



Tesla stock analysis showing why my Tesla target price is $2,907.

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A complete walkthrough of my Tesla valuation model explaining why I have Tesla stock is the biggest investment in my portfolio.

In this video I will share my Tesla stock analysis and the numbers behind my Tesla stock forecast for the next 10 years.

There are going to be some challenges ahead with the 4680 cells, the ramping of production at the 4 existing factories and the construction of new factories in new locations.

And I have revised my target price down after the Tesla earnings call revealed that there continue to be issues with scaling battery production.

$TSLA #TSLA #Tesla #Elon #ElonMusk

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41 Comments

  1. Hey Sasha, no worries if not but I was wondering if you might be interested at all in addressing some of the points made regarding Tesla and it's valuation by Dr. Mark Meldrum. He has a video here on YouTube which I believe should be easy to find if you haven't yet seen it, thanks.

  2. I honestly gotta say this has made me think and look at my own projections, thanks Sacha

  3. This is silly conservative. The mind boggling growth story this company is ready for this decade will outpace your 10 percent compounded returns a year. A 22 multiple even in 10 years is silly. Like you said, if they are just stretching their legs with energy and have robotaxi coming (and the bot), then they have multiple S curves of growth to grow through. So imagine a 50-100 multiple…. Tesla will be 10k plus. I think near 10k sounds much, much more reasonable than 2.9k. Can't imagine a company with these profits and this growth story taking 10 years just to match Apple today. Their profits in 2023 with 2.3k cars sold at around todays multiple (which is reasonable because its still a huge growth story) would have them around your price target IN 2023! IMO 2k for next year with their profit is a shoe-in. I hope you're wrong! Big fan because you called out that weasel Chicken Genius.

  4. The other car companies don't own gas stations like tesla owns charging stations with its name on the pumps….simply put

  5. I am glad I didn't stop DCA since 650 (CG advise is stop buying the dip) . $200 ++ per share gained! 🙂

  6. Elon has been pretty accurate at is predicting Tesla’s sales growth over the last decade. Macro issues like climate change could throw things off. Indonesia has a significant flooding issues, and water and power issues could slow down Tesla’s growth at a number of locations around the world. Where the new Giga plants are located and how the relationship between US & China evolves will play a significant role. Those who bet against Tesla tend to get burnt. My guess is 15 million vehicles by 2030 is more likely than 10 million. $4500/share stock price is my conservative number if FSD or robotaxi happens the upside is much higher.

  7. Interested to find out how many positions and at what price you have added to Man vs Market account….. Looking forward for an update?

  8. Nice conservative model Sasha, great content!
    Compact car could be a single gigacasting. Very few parts. But please keep the steering wheel in.

  9. The problem with making cars is that your old products compete with your new products. The biggest competition for a new Toyota Corolla is a used Toyota Corolla

    Even if there was just one auto company this company would not be as profitable as you might imagine because the competition is the existing stock

    At the moment tsla doesn't have this problem as there aren't many Tesla's on the road but at some point there will be and then it's shed to see how tsla can have better prices or margins than BMW And co the lux car makers

  10. Why is Berlin making 800k in year 3? I thought installed capacity there was 500k for Model Y.

  11. Not sure how you got to 2 trillion valuation only for the car business. What is the p/e ratio are you taking?

  12. I'll tell you what the Tesla valuation is without wasting my time looking at pie in the sky future data.

    891.45 at the end of today.

  13. Every time I watch these breakdown videos I always think, wow, how can one human be so smart! Great video Sasha, easy to digest & very informative. You’re the man!

  14. Hey Sasha you are not too bad for a random YouTube guy. Only joking. Really think a compact model is needed shortly. Appreciate your vid’s 👍

  15. I'm not a bull on Tesla, In fact I see the company with the same pessimistic view as I do Crypto, Im not interested..
    However I do enjoy your videos Sasha and often wonder if my views are justified..The data suggests Teslas future is extremely exciting and could see it becoming a Goliath of a company within 10 years..
    I'm waiting to see what the other car manufacturers are doing,they seem to be miles behind Tesla in every aspect…They seem to have missed the boat, I feel I missed the boat on investment in Tesla early on and will be only be investing in Tesla due to Fomo..
    Anyways,Great video Sasha.. Always enjoy your analysis and videos..

  16. Would love you to add the probability you predict to your analysis.(like Emmit Peppers)

    I expect that probability to change with each change in analysis. That way we have an idea on your conviction.

  17. I have NIO stock I feel like there a good company like Tesla which I also have stock in. Has anyone got options on them?

  18. I imagine you're already doing this but I'd keep a close eye on Berlin, with the way Russia is handling their country in terms of energy. As energy = production

  19. I still think EV are overpriced for mass adoption. Not many can afford a 50k+ car. I know gas price is getting pretty high…still I think many rather pay that than buying an expensive car…at least they are not locked in for 5 yr monthly payments.

  20. Great analysis!!! But watch out the ramp of giga Shanghai!! I can probably produce 1 mill per year by itself, very curious when the add on building will be completed, what the numbers will be🙏 tesla is my biggest position as well 😉

  21. Sasha, you take a cool headed look at the car manufactures likely future. You eliminate most of the 'what-ifs' in the process. Your goal is study the possible, based on the proven. My query is whether there will be the end of globalisation, a la Zeihan, and the disruption of most things manufactured, most cars Tesla. What say you, Sasha?

  22. All of this is based if tesla have linear growth which they won’t so none of this will be accurate . 2023 and 2024 maybe close to your assumptions but anything after tesla tesla will grow even faster then now 😉

  23. Sasha, you forgot all about Tesla important other businesses. Notably BTC and Twitter. The mainstream media would be very disappointed in you.

    I was shouting 'Amen' on all the big things you touched on. You need a bigger voice in the Tesla community to tone down the 4680 and especially CTruck expectations. OK. FSD too. People are just horrendously over-optimistic on those 3 things.

    Thanks for agreeing w me 😁.

  24. You should start to hang out with Jeremy. You could pump 10x stocks every week with him.

  25. Selling FSD means selling the cameras and the computer. Tesla FSD computer is optimised for neural networks AND power, It will therefore be a big number per vehicle but a big ask for manufacturers so will be much later as the problem must be fully solved for manufacturers to commit.

    Pivot tables are good for bringing togeter summaries. Or at least some grouping.

    I think power will be massive selling on home generation with stabalising plant and third party car charging.

  26. Hey Sasha, your analysis sounds very reasonable and realistic. Great work presenting your forecast.

  27. hey sasha i saw freetrade changed their account structures again. now offering £5 a month accounts where you can have an isa. Looks like their postponing share lending as well. they still too expensive for me

  28. Thank you Sasha. Very conservative imo. But make sense big position long term look conservative. All the rrst will be upside (free call option on Tesla innovation, margins, software)

  29. And there goes “mr fire emojis since January “ everything is fucked, sell everything.
    Oh hold on less viewers? Tried to ride coattail of chicken and got wrecked,let’s me suck some Tesla butt . 3 trillion ??? Really? In your country, what you said is commonly defined as a bunch of “bollocks” you “wanker”

  30. Hey Sasha great job as always. I do have to disagree with the output numbers from the Berlin and Texas factories when they are fully ramped . As a SpaceX employee and seeing how we double output every year yet we shrink footprint should give some insight on how Tesla improves output as well. The key factor which majority of people still don’t understand is the relentless push to eliminate and simplify parts and processes. Texas will be able to exit well over 5 million cars when fully ramped , but these factories will never be fully ramped as the innovation will never stop . The 20 million cars by 2030 is a soft target and Tesla will surpass that . I think we will see a small car at some point cast in one shot with a IDRA machine . Game over when that is solved .

  31. Good job with this. I have a much simpler model that I use and get similar numbers to you in the "No Robots or Robotaxis" version. I also do a "what if China nationalizes Giga Shanghai" version and even that says the stock is worth $2431 now.

    What happens to your model if you delete Giga Shanghai in 2024 or 2025?